By Source (WP:NFCC#4), Fair use, fearless Oscar predictions.  You can take these to the bank.
I hope that people make a ton of political statements for no other reason that it drives so called conservatives crazy.

I think I have La La Land winning 9 total.

Ill be tweeting up a storm from the red carpet to the bitter end, so if you are so inclined, follow me @jjtierney

If you win in your oscar pool because of me, I get a cut.

I love movies, I truly do and in these times we need them and we need Hollywood movies, just like we need Indies.  We need as much art as we can.   That’s why La La Land got a hold of me.   While we look to make sense of our current reality with art , we need to hold on to our Hollywood dreams too.


Best Picture

  1. La La Land (Will Win/Should Win)
  2. Manchester by the Sea
  3. Moonlight
  4. Fences
  5. Hell or High Water
  6. Lion
  7. Arrival
  8. Hacksaw Ridge
  9. Hidden Figures

Okay, clearly  I am totally on the La La train, this a wonderful film that harkens back not only to classic original Hollywood musicals but also other films, such as Casablanca.  There has been some backlash, but I suspect that backlash would favor Moonlight rather than Manchester, so while it is a long shot, don’t be surprised if Moonlight makes a liar out of me, but I think the chances of that are so remote it’s hardly worth thinking about.  The Academy loves movies about Hollywood, this is an easy pick


Best Actor:

  • DENZEL WASHINGTON –  Fences  (Will Win)
  • CASEY AFFLECK – Manchester by the Sea (Should Win)
  • ANDREW GARFIELD – Hacksaw Ridge
  • RYAN GOSLING – La La Land
  • VIGGO MORTENSEN – Captain Fantastic

I think this one could be a toss-up, maybe the tightest race of the evening. I’m saying Denzel will become a 3 time winner Sunday night.  He is the male Streep for the Academy, they love him.  Plus he has been campaigning hard for this one where Casey Affleck has not.  But for me, Affleck deserves to win this one.  His work in Manchester was to show emotion from a character who is unable to show emotion and he pulled it off masterfully.  There is also the fact that Affleck has some personal life issues that voters may have taken into consideration.  I would LOVE to see Viggo Mortensen win this, but I know I won’t.  If you haven’t seen Captain Fantastic you are missing out.


Best Actress:

  • EMMA STONE –  La La Land (Will Win/Should Win)
  • RUTH NEGGA –  Loving
  • MERYL STREEP – Florence Foster Jenkins

I have a ton of issues with this category.  I would not have nominated Meryl Streep, as good as she was in Florence Foster Jenkins.  I would not have nominated Ruth Negga, as good as she was in Loving.   I would have subbed in Amy Adams for Arrival. How can Arrival be a Best Picture nominee and leave Adams out?  She’s on the screen in every frame of the film!  I would have subbed in Viola Davis as lead actress, not supporting.  She won the Tony for this role as lead actress for christsakes!   That all being said, I would still have to say Emma Stone wins this deservedly.  I do hear the backlash including the first “Brutally Honest Ballot” in the Hollywood Reporter this week that said Stone would get her vote if it was Best Adorable Actress, but not an acting award.  I disagree, I think she became a movie star in La La Land.


Best Supporting Actor:

  • DEV PATEL –  Lion (Will Win/Should Win)
  • MAHERSHALA ALI – Moonlight
  • JEFF BRIDGES – Hell or High Water
  • LUCAS HEDGES – Manchester by the Sea
  • MICHAEL SHANNON – Nocturnal Animals

This is another tight race.  I think Dev Patel will win and deservedly so.  He’s been capaigning appropriately and I hear that Harvey Weinstein is pushing this one hard.  I wonder though if somehow some love for Moonlight would go here.  I wouldn’t be terrible unhappy if it did, Mahershala Ali is the true heart of the film, at least the first third of it.   I also wonder if Lucas Hedges or even Jeff Bridges could come out of a tight pack.   Those looking for surprises in the awards this year should look here.


Best Supporting Actress:

  • VIOLA DAVIS – Fences (Will Win)
  • MICHELLE WILLIAMS – Manchester by the Sea (Should Win)
  • NAOMIE HARRIS – Moonlight
  • OACTAVIA SPENCER – Hidden Figures

Let me explain myself on this one.  I DO think Viola Davis was the best actress in this group.  But she should have been Best Actress, not supporting.  I think she will win, that is my prediction and I think it’s a sure thing, but my choice in better constructed category is Michelle Williams and it’s on the strength of a single scene.  If you saw the film, you know what I mean.


Best Director:

  • DAMIEN CHAZELLE – La La Land (Will Win/Should Win)
  • BARRY JENKINS – Moonlight
  • MEL GIBSON – Hacksaw Ridge
  • KENNETH LONERGAN – Manchester by the Sea

This one, like Best Picture is all La La Land.  I think the only possible upset would be Barry Jenkins because I think they voters really want to give Moonlight some recognition, but I think this is a sure bet for Chazelle.


Best Original Screenplay:

  • KENNETH LONERGAN – Manchester by the Sea (Will Win/Should Win)
  • TAYLOR SHERIDAN – Hell or High Water
  • MIKE MILLS –  20th Century Women

Another sure thing.  I’ll be stunned if another screenplay wins.


Best Adapted Screenplay:

  • Moonlight (Will Win/Should Win)
  • Arrival
  • Fences
  • Hidden Figures
  • Lion

Moonlight wins this one.  A lot of folks are liking Fences, but I think too many other people think Fences wasn’t adapted at all, they just shot the play as written.


Best Foreign Language Film:

  • The Salesman (Will Win)
  • Land of Mine
  • A Man Called Ove
  • Tanna
  • Toni Erdmann

You have to understand the dirty little secret of all this.  Most voters don’t see all the movies they vote on.  That’s why press, work of mouth, promotion and ground game can tip the awards.   Early favorite Toni Erdmann is too long, and everyone is complaining about that.  Asghar Farhadi, the Iranian director who was barred from entering the US a month ago and had said he will not be attending even if he is allowed into the country will win this in a rally moment for the industry against the current regime.


Best Cinematography:

  • La La Land (Will Win/Should Win)
  • Arrival
  • Lion
  • Moonlight
  • Silence


Best Costume Design:

  • Jackie (Will Win)
  • Allied
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • Florence Foster Jenkins
  • La La Land


Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

  • Star Trek Beyond (Wil Win)
  • A Man Called Ove
  • Suicide Squad


Best Original Score:

  • JUSTIN HURWITZ – La La Land (Will Win)
  • MICA LEVI – Jackie
  • NICHOLAS BRITELL – Moonlight
  • TOMAS NEWMAN – Passengers


Best Animated Feature Film:

  • Zootopia (Will Win)
  • Kubo and the Two Strings
  • Moana
  • My Life as a Zucchini
  • The Red Turtle



Best Animated Short Film:

  • Piper (Will Win)
  • Blind Vaysha
  • Borrowed Time
  • Pear Cider and Cigarettes
  • Pearl



Best Documentary Feature:

  • O.J.: Made in America (Will Win/Should Win)
  • Fire at Sea
  • I Am Not Your Negro
  • Life Animated
  • 13th
  • This one is a layup, I  will be stunned if anything else wins this.


Best Documentary Short Subject:

  • Joe’s Violin (Will Win)
  • Extremis
  • 4.1 Miles
  • Watani: My Homeland
  • The White Helmets


Best Film Editing:

  • La La Land (Will Win)
  • Arrival
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Hell or High Water
  • Moonlight

Might see Hacksaw Ridge sneak in on this.


Best Original Song:

  • “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from “La La Land” (Will Win/Should Win)
  • “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from “Trolls”
  • “City of Stars” from “La La Land”
  • “The Empty Chair” from “Jim: The James Foley Story”
  • “How Far I’ll Go” from “Moana”


Best Production Design:

  • La La Land (Will Win)
  • Arrival
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • Hail, Caesar!
  • Passengers


Best Live Action Short Film:

  • La femme et Le TGV (Will Win)
  • Ennemis Interieurs
  • Silent Nights
  • Sing
  • Timecode


Best Sound Editing:

  • Hacksaw Ridge (Will Win)
  • Arrival
  • Deepwater Horizon
  • La La Land
  • Sully


Best Sound Mixing:

  • La La Land (Will Win)
  • Arrival
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  • 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi


Best Visual Effects:

  • The Jungle Book (Will Win)
  • Deepwater Horizon
  • Doctor Strange
  • Kubo and the Two Strings
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story